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Kenya could face growing economic pressure if rising global oil prices persist amid the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran, analysts have warned.
The tensions in the Middle East have triggered concerns worldwide over potential disruptions to global oil supply chains. Experts say Kenya, which relies heavily on imported petroleum products, could be particularly vulnerable to the ripple effects of the crisis.
According to an analysis by research firm Zero Carbon Analytics, sustained instability in the region could push oil prices even higher, increasing fuel costs locally and putting additional strain on the country’s economy.
At the centre of the global concern is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes. Nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through the narrow waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to global markets.
However, the ongoing conflict involving Iran has disrupted tanker movements and damaged energy infrastructure, unsettling global oil markets. In recent trading sessions, oil prices have surged sharply, with spikes of close to 20 percent as fears of supply shortages intensify.
Climate and energy expert Joab Okanda said Kenya currently has some fuel reserves, but the effects of the crisis could soon be felt.
“Our minister said we have reserves that can take us until the end of April. The main impact will likely be felt in the next procurement cycle,” Okanda explained.
The rising cost of crude oil is already affecting the global economy. Airlines in several countries have begun increasing fares due to higher fuel costs, while some major economies are considering releasing emergency oil reserves in an attempt to stabilise markets.
Some countries have already taken action. Egypt, for instance, has raised domestic fuel prices in response to the global surge.
For Kenya, where fuel prices significantly influence inflation and economic activity, prolonged increases in oil costs could translate into a higher cost of living.
Renewable energy expert Juliana Kainga warned that the crisis could also weaken the Kenyan shilling by affecting export revenues.
“Given this is a global situation, we might see a reduction in exports as countries that import our goods—such as tea, coffee and cut flowers—face economic pressure. That means less US dollars coming into the country, while we still need more dollars to pay for oil imports. This puts pressure on the shilling,” she noted.
Beyond the immediate economic impact, analysts say the crisis exposes Kenya’s long-term vulnerability due to its dependence on imported fossil fuels.
Energy experts argue that accelerating investments in renewable energy, electric mobility and regional power integration could help shield the country from similar shocks in the future.
Kainga pointed to the rapid growth of electric mobility as a promising development.
“The e-mobility space is already helping reduce the shocks of fuel price volatility. We have seen adoption grow by more than 3,000 percent between 2024 and 2026,” she said.
Okanda added that transitioning away from fossil fuels is not only an environmental necessity but also an economic strategy.
“Moving away from dependence on fossil fuels is not just a climate or environmental issue—it is actually an economic imperative,” he said.
As the conflict continues to unfold, analysts say the key question for Kenya may not only be how long the war lasts, but how long the country can withstand the economic shock caused by volatile global oil markets.
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